Census Numbers Indicate Los Angeles County Likely to Lose Representation in 2021

Slow population growth means southeastern and eastern regions of Los Angeles County are likely to lose congressional and state legislative representatives to the Inland Empire and San Francisco Bay Area in the 2021 redistricting, according to a new study from the Rose Institute of State and Local Government at Claremont McKenna College. The report, entitled “Winners and Losers: the 2020 Census and California’s 2021 Redistricting,” is available from the Rose Institute website:  RoseInstitute.org.

Using Census data, the Institute team estimated 2020 population levels for nine regions across the state and the expected congressional, California Senate, and Assembly seats that each region would expect to have following the 2021 redistricting.

“Slow growth rates in parts of Los Angeles County mean those regions are likely to see their influence reduced in Sacramento and Washington, while relatively high growth rates in the San Francisco Bay Area and the San Bernardino / Riverside County Inland Empire mean those areas are likely to increase their influence after the 2021 redistricting,” according to Rose Institute Fellow Douglas Johnson.

In addition to representation in Sacramento and Washington DC, the Census counts determine how much states and localities receive from the estimated $800 billion in federal funds distributed each year based on Census population counts.

All of these results assume relatively even Census participation and accuracy across the state. Areas that are more effective in getting residents to participate in the Census could see gains in representation and federal funding at the expense of areas that lag in Census participation.

For additional information about the report or the webinars, contact the Institute at 909-621-8159. Dr. Johnson is available for media interviews at douglas.johnson@cmc.edu or 310-200-2058.

This new report from the Rose Institute will be covered in detail during the first of the Rose Institute/s upcoming series of webinars explaining what local governments need to know about how the census will be conducted, how the Census will affect representation and funding, and how the redistricting process will unfold:

To register for a webinar or for more information, please go to http://roseinstitute.org/redistricting/ or call 909-621-8159.

Rose Institute of State and Local Government
Kravis Center, Fourth Floor
850 Columbia Ave
Claremont, CA 91711
Phone: (909) 621-8159